Well, it’s 3:15 on Saturday and I’ve just finished handicapping the Blue Grass… and it’s the first race I’ve finished. I’m pretty sure I can get through the Arkansas Derby and maybe even the Holy Bull if I’m lucky!

I could use the excuse that this race was really hard to figure out as the reason why I’m getting so little done, but that wouldn’t be the truth. However, that doesn’t detract from the fact that it was really hard to figure this one out!

Between the clear division of those with synthetic experience & those without + questionable pace scenario one could go back and forth about how things are going to shake out (and I did).

I’m going with the idea that Pyro, my current favorite for the Derby, will not win here. His works have been ultra consistent and his last work over the surface looks exactly like his last work before his last win + he’ll likely get the same kind of pace, but let’s face it, he doesn’t have to win. And as Valerie has pointed out, no Derby winner of the last 10 years has won this race (including Street Sense).

There are a couple items of note in this race. I’m guessing that Pletcher has entered the talented turf specialist Cowboy Cal not only to see what he’ll do here, but to create a nice pace scenario for Monba. It looks like they worked together last out and Monba did a touch better… it was a nice work for both of them.

Miner’s Claim and perhaps even Stonebird seem like they might be on or near the lead as well… while I’m not expecting anything close to the pace in the Wood, it could be a touch faster than we’ve seen in the majority of prep races.

Cool Coal Man looks great… his last work is a nice improvement at the distance, he’s proven at the distance and it bears noting that he’s in the same post position as his last two, which means he should set-up perfectly. However, he’s a total wild card on the surface.

Big Truck also looks great, even better than Cool Coal Man in my opinion because of that last work over the track + the same bullet pattern as prior to his last win. It looks like he’s gonna like the surface. Visionaire’s last work also seems to indicate that he’ll like the surface.

As for the proven synthetic runners Halo Najib looks like he could really improve here… if he runs on the pace I think he could be in the mix at the end. Could he be this year’s Dominican? Medjool looks like he could make some noise too.