Last year’s Monba winner, Dominican is making his 4yo debut tomorrow in the 8th at Keenland, a 62K 1 1/16th allowance optional claimer. He’s the lukewarm favorite at 7/2! BirdBirdistheword is also entered, he’s 10-1… neither is in for a tag.

Dominican’s last start was the West Virginia Derby in August where he came in 6th in front of my beloved Slew’s Tizzy (love is blind… our anniversary is coming up on Saturday!).

I’m not sure if he was injured or was just given a decent break but I did noticed him on the work tab. He wasn’t training very regularly at first but has put in a weekly work for the last month and has been improving nicely. Best of luck to him!

Update: Dominican came in second and Birdbirdistheword came in 3rd… congrats to both and their connections!

Also, check out the pace on last year’s race… I’m actually more impressed by his huge close than was then.

Barclay Tagg watching over his horses at Belmont (Jason Moran)

Ask, and you shall be given…

That Prado would take the mount on Adriano. I was hoping for Tale of Ekati, but I will certainly look a little closer at Adriano now. I definitely liked his run in the Lane’s End but didn’t think much about it as it seemed like his connections were going to resist the temptation (I should have known better).

I wonder if this means Coa will be back on Tale of Ekati with Elysium Fields confirmed as out and Big Truck at #28 in the earnings. That doesn’t seem like such a bad thing.

I was reading Andy Beyer’s “Derby Prep Races Offer Little Interest” column today and was struck by something he said…

Only one colt has delivered anything resembling a spectacular performance: Big Brown, in his Florida Derby victory.

However, in his Feb 11th “Pyro’s Late Kick a Jaw-dropper” column he had this to say about Pyro’s Risen Star run…

I have been watching and covering prep races for the Kentucky Derby for four decades, and I would rank this among the most impressive ever – along with Honest Pleasure’s 1976 Flamingo Stakes and Spend a Buck’s 1985 Garden State Stakes.

Insert your own thoughts here media, hype, short term memory and the seduction of a flashy finish… I’d supply some thoughts but I have a lot of work to do tonight (which will probably result in some more procrastination posting!).

In an unrelated note, Railbird also takes exception to Beyer’s current column regarding a different issue, which spawns an interesting conversation about surface, bias, divination and frock kissing… check it out!

What with last week’s win coupled with finding the Top Bunk story… I finally pulled it together to “formalize” my Pony Up! program.

It’s my own personal program, but I would encourage y’all to create your own. Starting with you Swifty and your well paying exacta in the Blue Grass!

I will eventually make a little banner and give it a more prominent placement here at GbG, but what with all my pieces of Derby flair, it’s feeling a little too chaotic at the moment, visually speaking.

As I was reading the various takes on yesterdays preps it dawned on me that this is not the only Sunday where we’re left to ponder “what happened to (fill in the blank)?” and inevitably “what does it mean?”.

Let’s take a look back, shall we?

Blue Grass: Pyro, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man, Big Truck

Santa Anita Derby: El Gato Malo

Illinois Derby: Denis of Cork

Florida Derby: Fierce Wind, Elysium Fields

Rebel: Z Fortune

Tampa Bay Derby: War Pass

Louisiana Derby: Tale of Ekati

Gotham: Giant Moon

Fountain of Youth: Monba

What does this mean, other than this year’s 3yos seem to be a lot less consistent than last year’s? I’m going to throw out the Blue Grass for the no-showers because of the surface. It would be one thing if only one of them stunk, but they all got a big fat F.

Does this mean that the horses that haven’t thrown a clunker yet are more likely to on Derby day? Does it mean that those who have thrown a clunker have theirs out of the way? It would be great if it were that simple (and maybe in some cases it is). Monba, Tale of Ekati, War Pass and Z Fortune have all had nice comebacks off of their clunkers, could the same be true for the recent no shows?

Take War Pass, I thought his Wood performance was great… the old War Pass showed up, set insane fractions and gutted it out for a strong place. I don’t think there’s any shame in that performance. If he were my horse I’d wait for the Preakness and then save him for the summer as it’s clear he won’t rate and there’s a ton of confirmed speed going to Kentucky.

How about Big Brown? My biggest prove it to me point, other than his feet (which I think is a big point to prove), is that his real competition didn’t show up in the Florida Derby. Sure he’s got a ton of talent and I’m excited to see what he’ll do with it (if his connections don’t f-up his feet because of their Derby fever) but I can’t back at a horse at those odds with so little proven. It actually cracks me up how people go so bananas for a visually impressive performance and a 3 digit Beyer (on a speed favoring track). I’m still of the opinion that Pyro’s Risen Star was the the performance of the season.

And yes, speaking of Pyro, if he comes out the Blue Grass sound he’s still my fav… and even better for me that his odds will no doubt be much higher. As for the rest of them… I’m still mulling it all over and waiting to see how they train. I’ll definitely be updating my Derby Dating thoughts in the coming week as a girl has to keep an eye on all of her options!

Was just checking in with Swifty, who’s over at “The Office” to see if he had anything in Holy Bull. He had the trifecta… he’s on fire! I took a pass on the Holy Bull.

While we were chatting I could hear a low booming voice over the din of the simulcast over his cell phone.

Swifty: “You’re SO lucky you’re not here… you would be SO annoyed. There’s an older know it all guy spouting off about all the races. A table of 3 young professionals fawningly asked him if he had ever seen a horse as a good as Big Brown.”

Me: “EEEEEWWWWWWWW”

Swifty: “Yeah, wait… his answer “Secretariat“.”

Swifty calls me 10 minutes before the Blue Grass:

Swifty: “Who do you like?”

Me: “Big Truck, Monba and Halo Najib”

Swifty: “Really?”

Me: “Yeah, I’m going with the theory Pyro doesn’t have to win. Who do you like?”

Swifty: “Cowboy Cal”

Me: “Yeah, I think he’s interesting but I think he’s entered to ensure a good pace for Monba, who I’m expecting to do well. Look at their last work together. Monba did better.”

Swifty: “Interesting, I wasn’t considering Monba at all but you’re right.”

10 minutes later I call Swifty…

Swifty: “Thanks”

Me: “You had the exacta didn’t you?”

Swifty: “Yep!”

Me: “I’m an idiot…”

Well, it’s 3:15 on Saturday and I’ve just finished handicapping the Blue Grass… and it’s the first race I’ve finished. I’m pretty sure I can get through the Arkansas Derby and maybe even the Holy Bull if I’m lucky!

I could use the excuse that this race was really hard to figure out as the reason why I’m getting so little done, but that wouldn’t be the truth. However, that doesn’t detract from the fact that it was really hard to figure this one out!

Between the clear division of those with synthetic experience & those without + questionable pace scenario one could go back and forth about how things are going to shake out (and I did).

I’m going with the idea that Pyro, my current favorite for the Derby, will not win here. His works have been ultra consistent and his last work over the surface looks exactly like his last work before his last win + he’ll likely get the same kind of pace, but let’s face it, he doesn’t have to win. And as Valerie has pointed out, no Derby winner of the last 10 years has won this race (including Street Sense).

There are a couple items of note in this race. I’m guessing that Pletcher has entered the talented turf specialist Cowboy Cal not only to see what he’ll do here, but to create a nice pace scenario for Monba. It looks like they worked together last out and Monba did a touch better… it was a nice work for both of them.

Miner’s Claim and perhaps even Stonebird seem like they might be on or near the lead as well… while I’m not expecting anything close to the pace in the Wood, it could be a touch faster than we’ve seen in the majority of prep races.

Cool Coal Man looks great… his last work is a nice improvement at the distance, he’s proven at the distance and it bears noting that he’s in the same post position as his last two, which means he should set-up perfectly. However, he’s a total wild card on the surface.

Big Truck also looks great, even better than Cool Coal Man in my opinion because of that last work over the track + the same bullet pattern as prior to his last win. It looks like he’s gonna like the surface. Visionaire’s last work also seems to indicate that he’ll like the surface.

As for the proven synthetic runners Halo Najib looks like he could really improve here… if he runs on the pace I think he could be in the mix at the end. Could he be this year’s Dominican? Medjool looks like he could make some noise too.

I was just making the rounds this morning in preparation for looking at the Derby preps (i.e., procrastinating). I still haven’t decided if I’m going to play or just watch.

I made my way back to flickr to find out that the folks who rescued Top Bunk created a great Wiki entry about him as a part of their rescue effort.

Not only can you find out about Top Bunk’s racing career (which was impressive) and see a bit of the process they used to claim to the horse, but you can see what the life of a claimer is like in a little more detail than is available in a past performance. It ain’t pretty and this doesn’t even include any lurid details. I’m glad to know there are folks out there who are actively keeping an eye open for horses in need of help.

Also of note, there’s a link at the bottom of the page to a NY Times article from 2001 that mentions Top Bunk, it’s about a professional horseplayer… something I’ll never be if I keep procrastinating like this!