Yee Haw, it’s a pool party y’all! (Jacob…K)
Today’s third installment of the HANA Pool Party takes place in the 3rd at Mountaineer in the exacta pool. As usual there are free PPs and other items over HANA and this week local Mountaineer handicapper Mark Patterson offers his take.
I love the exacta, not only is it my favorite wager, it’s also my most successful wager (pretty sure I just jinxed myself!). I’ve been home with a nasty cold the past few days but I managed to look over the race yesterday.
The race is pretty evenly matched and while the favorite, Enter the Lion, did stand out a bit, most notably for winning on the cut back, I’m more than likely going to throw him out. Looking back over the charts for the last days uncovered that front runners and stalkers have done overwhelmingly better than off the pace types. The two races where Enter the Lion has won have been won from the off the pace and while he ran his last two on the pace (as if they were sprints) my guess is that he’ll be back off the pace when in sprinting company.
Currently I’m interested in 5, 6, 7 & 8 and am going to wait until I get to eyeball them in the parade to figure out how I’m going to play it. I may just box them all up if they all look decent and the price is right. Legacy Hunter (#5) has done well at the distance and is cutting back, an angle that’s been fairly successful for his trainer, who’s overall stats aren’t bad. The forecast is also calling for rain tonight and this one has won in the slop, if it comes that.
I’m not sure why Take Aim (#6) isn’t the favorite as he’s the only one coming off a win. Kris’s Honor (#7) has also won at the distance and racked up a string of 5 place & shows usually within a length or so of the winner at the end of last year and Hey Reemer is returning to the dirt and reunited with his winning jockey, one of my favorite angles! All of these horses are on the pace runners so they fit the apparent bias going on at Mountaineer.
I’m happy this week’s pool party takes place at night, so all of us working stiffs that can’t watch from work have a chance to watch/wager in real time (even though I’m home sick today and could have watched any race). As always, good luck & have fun!
Update: the one front runner I tossed, Ameliaslandmissle (#9), won at 14-1 and Kris’s Honor (#7) at 3-1 placed. The $2 exacta, or perfecta as they call it at Mountaineer, payed $136. At least my assessment of the front runner bias was right on… see you next week!