Insert obligatory sentiment about being bummed yet relieved that Zenyatta was scratched. Follow-up with note about looking forward to seeing her debut.

Now that that’s out of the way… I didn’t handicap the Aegan Turf Sprint so let’s start with Zenyatta-less Louisville Handicap.

One Caroline will probably win, but it’s worth noting that her smallest winning margin aside from her maiden win was with Swift Temper right behind her pressing the pace. So far the track has been speed favoring so it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see Swift Temper steal it but I’m gonna take a shot with Miss Isella. Unlike Swift Temper who has run 5 times at Churchill and only showed once, Miss Isella has won 3 and placed once for the same amount of races. She’s also won 2nd off and with the switch from synthetics to dirt. I think she’ll sit off the pace on the outside (the money spot so far) and with any luck she can get it done. Unbridled Belle is always a wild card for me, I like her a little bit here as she does well off a break but she doesn’t seem to like the slop. No doubt she’ll be short a price as well. I might even box Miss Isella and Swift Temper depending on how the look in the parade. I will definitely use One Caroline in Pick 3s but am looking elsewhere in the race.

Update: Miss Isella scores and pays $19.40, the day is off to a great start!

In the Edgewood Laragh looks to be very short price. I’ll single her in Pick a 3 & Pick 4 but am looking at Magical Affair and Abbott Hall for value.

Update: Laragh won impressively with a quick closing Magical Affair getting up for second, I’ve still got one Pick 4 ticket alive but am out of the Pick 3.

Dr. Pleasure looks like he could wire the field in the Alysheba. Macho Again and Mambo in Seattle will probably take most of the money and perhaps Macho Again can make it 2 back to back on a sloppy track, but I’ll be looking to the better priced Bullsbay, and long shot Shift in Power, who both love Churchill and the distance. I don’t think Cool Coal Man will press the pace too much so both Bullsbay and Shift in Power might get the moderate that suits them. Off course, Macho Again might ruin my long shot fun, but so be it!

Update: Bullsbay gets by an impressive looking Cool Coal Man, I didn’t play the race right but have 2 live Pick 3 tickets.

I’m not going too wild with long shots in the American Turf as I think Stormalory and Julien Leparoux will get the job done. I also like Battle of Hastings but I do think Bruce N Autumn is interesting as he’ll be back on the turf at Churchill, the site of his only win which was exactly at the distance. I might throw him into a tri with the other 2 for fun but am unlikely to use him in a Pick 4.

Update: Sadly, Stormalory broke down after taking a bad step during the break and had to by euthanized. Condolences to his connections, Orthodox pulled a major upset over Battle of Hastings. If there’s any upside to be had in these situations, it was nice to see Jon Court of Animal Planet’s Jockeys show get some vindication and nice pay day on Orthodox.

And for the Oaks, it’s hard to see Rachel Alexandra losing, but if she does I definitely don’t want to miss out on the fun! It’s not like she’s undefeated and anyone can have an off day. Obviously I’ll single her in a Pick 4 but I think Justwhistledixie, Gabby’s Golden Gal and Flying Spur all look very interesting. I’ll have one crazy Pick 4 ticket including those 3 and wait to see how the look in the parade before I decide how to play it.

Update: Feast your eyes on the incredible greatness of Rachel Alexandra, the 2009 Triple Crown winner… oh, wait. Dammit!

Good luck, and let’s get everyone home safe!