Edgar Prado at Saratoga (odizl)

Quite a few news items on the recently inducted Hall of Famer Edgar Prado today.

First we learn his decision to ride Adriano is out of loyalty to trainer Graham Motion and prior to comeback performances of Tale of Ekati and Monba.

Prado, who won the 2006 Derby with Barbaro, made his surprise announcement mostly because he has a longtime relationship with Graham Motion, the trainer of Adriano. The two had success years ago on the Maryland circuit, and, after Prado rode the colt to a win in the Lane’s End on March 22, Motion asked the jockey for a commitment. He got it.

Then we find out he takes a spill on a Motion trained filly, is hospitalized and released! It sounds like he’s ok… I certainly hope so, best of luck for a speedy recovery!

The Twinspires, looking maaaah-velous (eqqman)

This cracked me up.

If you were looking for a sign that Pyro has bounced out of his Toyota Blue Grass (gr. I) fiasco in top shape and is back to being the Pyro of old, you certainly didn’t get it Monday morning when the colt worked six furlongs in fog so thick it wasn’t able to be timed by the Keeneland clockers.

This is a crazy year, no? The foggy Gotham, War Pass out, possibly a couple of talented fillies in, a bunch of horses who haven’t raced on dirt yet, a bunch of confirmed dirt horses doing their final prep on poly, a South American invader and a hype machine so strong I’m wondering if it’s the real reason the Times started it’s racing blog.

I’m much more interested to see Pyro’s work at Churchill anyway. I was surprised to see Curlin get back to work so soon. Since he’s shipping to Churchill presumably with Pyro, I wonder if Pyro’s last Derby work with be with the master? I hope that doesn’t tinker with his odd too much!

Meanwhile, one has to look no further to understand why Steve Davidowitz is my handicapping idol. In his more recent DRF column, he shares some Derby lessons, both generally and his own.

The thing I like about Davidowitz is that he’s holistic. He reminds us to not only take into account each horse but to look at how each piece of the puzzle could potentially come together (or not). Seeing people tout Big Brown as being “head and shoulders” above the rest based speed figures and a flashy performance cracks me up.

I have all the same questions about Big Brown that I had about Curlin last year. Foot issues not withstanding, let’s say he can hold the distance, will he hold up in stretch battle? Can he look a horse in the eye and dig in?

I suspect there are a lot of people out there who think he won’t get a chance to answer those questions, but I’m not one of them. When he checks off all the items on my “prove it me” list, then I’ll be singing his praises, just like I now do for Curlin.

Davidowitz goes on:

I also have come to realize that it is a bad mistake to settle on a firm pick before the final field is known, before post positions are drawn, and before the overall pace of the race can be mapped out. At the same time, trying to stretch your view of the race to accent marginal longshots for a win play, usually is a prescription for a stack of losing tickets.

Sorry Ernie, I’m not gonna do a top 5… but I will update my Derby Dating selections at least one more time before the big dance! Until then, check out some Kentucky Derby Odds!

There was a quite a flurry of activity today what with the NTRA launching their much anticipated Horseplayers’ Coalition and the NY Times launching their Triple Crown blog, The Rail.

The Horseplayers’ Coalition is, in the words of the NTRA:

a consortium of horseplayers whose common objective is to seek legislative and regulatory solutions to tax and business issues that impact racing fans and pari-mutuel racetracks.

In short, it’s a political action committee. Get on over there and get involved if this is your sort of thing!

It’s great that they’re doing it and smart to do it not too long after tax time… those of you who had a good year last year will no doubt still be smarting and perhaps mad enough to do something about it. And if you ever wondered why things are they way they are, it’s because of special interest groups, so now that we are one let’s get busy!

I haven’t had a chance to look at The Rail too closely yet (my job sort of precludes me from doing as much reading as I’d like, let alone any day time posting). But I did already glance one thing that I’ll be posting about the before the evening is over. I only have one question, is it journalism or is it a blog?

All kidding aside, it’s great that they’re doing it, especially with the sad decline in turf writing in newspapers. On the classy side, they gave a shout out to the TBA in the blogroll and my favorite film making brothers did a guest post… nice!

Under the whip (geni80)

I don’t watch too much of the coverage of races on network or cable when they’re on. I DVR them for posterity and watch the race part, but I want to see odds, the paddock and the parade, not patter.

I had ESPN’s coverage of the Lexington on with volume down as I was deciding how to make my play. When I turned on the volume the patter was about Samba Rooster. Apparently he’s a bit of handful and HATES the whip. They were discussing that the strategy with Samba Rooster was that Garrett Gomez wouldn’t even carry a whip. Samba Rooster does best when you make him feel like he’s pulling against you… and clearly it worked as went off at 17-1 and placed paying $17.

Jerry Baily, a hall of fame jockey, added “most horses will give you everything they have without hitting them”.

Then, Randy Moss chimes in with…

I think this this is the wave of the future, I think we should do away with whips completely

Hear, f-ing hear!!! Naturally Tessitore cut in jokingly that it was “very European of him” and then they cut to the bugler. But how fantastic of him to say it! I can’t STAND over whipping and to hear someone of Randy Moss’ stature suggest that not only should there be less whipping, but NO whipping was well, fantastic.

I’ve blogged about this before (still at the old site) but it bears repeating. In England they have very clear specifications about the use of the whip. Superstar jock Frankie Dettori was banned for 14 days for his whip use on Ramonti during Royal Ascot. Can you imagine if one our superstar jocks was banned for whip use during the Breeders’ Cup?

Of course that would require there to be some kind of standard and then someone to actually enforce it… let’s hope we see the day when issues such as over whipping and drugging are taken seriously, because until then it’s really hard to convince people that the sport of kings is not “troubled… and filled with dirty little half-kept secrets” or worse, “old-fashioned animal abuse made into a business“, no matter how hard we try.

Before cutting to the bugler, Moss got in “by the way, this shows the horse is very intelligent…”.

Hats Off to you Swifty, well done! (Joelle Smith)

and to David Flores for an excellent trip! I was surprised that Behindathebar sat so far off the pace but he moved up nicely throughout the race and Flores was able to position himself perfectly. If Racecar Rhapsody would have gone with him he might have gotten up in time as he had a nice closing kick.

Riley Tucker also did well, but not well enough to make one of exactas.

And how about St. Joe Samba Rooster?

Estoy triste Tomcito que lo hicieron mal, me hubiera gustado haber visto a él en el Derby. (Gracias Google Translate!)

Yours truly is a bit woolly headed today, which is ridiculous given that I only had two beers last night with one kick ass movie in between them. This makes me all the more impressed with my colleagues who can drink buckets of Funky Cold Medina and then compose lengthy well thought out emails!

As for the Lexington, there’s a lot to like! I’m looking for St. Joe and Samba Rooster to set a fast pace and more than likely knock each other out as I don’t see any indication that either of them can rate. I would have to see some endurance works rather than speed works given that both of them are stretching out, St. Joe more than Samba Rooster.

I really like Atoned and I’ll be happy if he does well but I’m not convinced here. I know he can get the distance but I’m not sure about the surface (even though his last work at Keenland was nice) and I’m not sure what he’s gonna do with a fast pace given that all but his first two races where on the slow side. Of course a faster pace could be just what he needs but I’m going to look elsewhere today.

Salute the Sarge looks interesting and I’m somewhat tempted but not all synthetic surfaces are equal so I’m not counting on his west coast synthetic record to automatically transfer here. I think he could handle the pace and the distance but I’m going to look elsewhere given his odds.

There are 3 that I like almost equally, Racecar Rhapsody, Riley Tucker and Tomcito. All will do well with a fast pace and all of their running styles will do well with a speed duel, should it materialize.

Racecar Rhapsody is cutting back in a 2nd off start… this should suite him. He likes Keenland and if Tomcito doesn’t like the surface I think RR is the closer here. I really liked his inside move in the Lane’s End and thought he looked game in the stretch, give him a faster pace on a proven track and he looks attractive.

Let me just say that I really want Tomcito to win because I really want him in the Derby. I’m not saying he’s my pick to win the Derby but I think he’ll make it more interesting. After seeing his first U.S. performance we can now tell that he will probably do well with fast fractions, but in addition to the concern about the surface, I’m also wondering if this is actually enough distance for him? Also of note, his handled gate work at Keenland is kind of insane!

And last but not least there’s Riley Tucker. His last out at the distance at Keenland was nice and I’m guessing he’ll do a bit better off a faster pace but he’ll have to work get a good position breaking from the 10th. It’s hard to tell anything from Mott’s training style sometimes and this is one of those times… consistent 4F at 48 for the last 4 works.

I just got off the phone with Swifty… he also likes Behindathebar. My concern about him was the same with Salute the Sarge, not to assume all the synthetics are equal. I think he can do well given the pace so I’ll probably include him too if for no other reason than to avoid what happens every time Swifty and like different horses.

Good luck everyone!

Last year’s Monba winner, Dominican is making his 4yo debut tomorrow in the 8th at Keenland, a 62K 1 1/16th allowance optional claimer. He’s the lukewarm favorite at 7/2! BirdBirdistheword is also entered, he’s 10-1… neither is in for a tag.

Dominican’s last start was the West Virginia Derby in August where he came in 6th in front of my beloved Slew’s Tizzy (love is blind… our anniversary is coming up on Saturday!).

I’m not sure if he was injured or was just given a decent break but I did noticed him on the work tab. He wasn’t training very regularly at first but has put in a weekly work for the last month and has been improving nicely. Best of luck to him!

Update: Dominican came in second and Birdbirdistheword came in 3rd… congrats to both and their connections!

Also, check out the pace on last year’s race… I’m actually more impressed by his huge close than was then.

Barclay Tagg watching over his horses at Belmont (Jason Moran)

Ask, and you shall be given…

That Prado would take the mount on Adriano. I was hoping for Tale of Ekati, but I will certainly look a little closer at Adriano now. I definitely liked his run in the Lane’s End but didn’t think much about it as it seemed like his connections were going to resist the temptation (I should have known better).

I wonder if this means Coa will be back on Tale of Ekati with Elysium Fields confirmed as out and Big Truck at #28 in the earnings. That doesn’t seem like such a bad thing.

I was reading Andy Beyer’s “Derby Prep Races Offer Little Interest” column today and was struck by something he said…

Only one colt has delivered anything resembling a spectacular performance: Big Brown, in his Florida Derby victory.

However, in his Feb 11th “Pyro’s Late Kick a Jaw-dropper” column he had this to say about Pyro’s Risen Star run…

I have been watching and covering prep races for the Kentucky Derby for four decades, and I would rank this among the most impressive ever – along with Honest Pleasure’s 1976 Flamingo Stakes and Spend a Buck’s 1985 Garden State Stakes.

Insert your own thoughts here media, hype, short term memory and the seduction of a flashy finish… I’d supply some thoughts but I have a lot of work to do tonight (which will probably result in some more procrastination posting!).

In an unrelated note, Railbird also takes exception to Beyer’s current column regarding a different issue, which spawns an interesting conversation about surface, bias, divination and frock kissing… check it out!