Author Archives: dana

The Law of Unintended Consequences

In the immortal words of the fictional Gordon Gekkco, “greed is good, greed is right and greed works“. Yes, but usually not for us, the horse players.

One can argue that greed is the predominant reason why our horses don’t race for very long. One can also argue that greed is a factor in why our horse don’t race very often. One can even go so far to as to say that greed plays a role in why our horses have become so unsound.

Enter the law of unintended consequences and we have greed to thank for Curlin, our horse of the year and now the world champion, running as a 4 year old.

To hear Jess Jackson tell it, you’d think the whole thing was a well thought out orchestrated move designed for the long term betterment of the sport. But with two of Curlin’s part owners being lawyers indicted for swindling the plaintiffs of a class action lawsuit against the makers of the the diet drug Fen-Phen, there is a bit of a monkey wrench thrown into the mix.

The three lawyers are also the target of a civil case brought by the plaintiffs, some of whom have asserted that Gallion and Cunningham used proceeds from the case to purchase Curlin, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Belmont Stakes. The lawsuit, filed in 2004, is scheduled to go to trial in September.

At the time of the year when a champion 3 year old is making his final curtain call, the greed of two of Curlin’s owners disturbed the “natural order” and kept Curlin in limbo long enough to make it not only plausible, but attractive to keep him in training as a 4 year old.

Hooray for greed! Greed owes us big time… and it seems as though greed knows how to return a favor!

While we’re on this roll, let’s hope that greed comes through in the long run and proves that it can be just as profitable, if not more so, to run your fancy pants horses past 3… hell, they might even get a little better with age (and fetch you more money in the breeding shed)!

I’m guessing that if you were risk averse you might not be involved in horse racing at all, right?

Balance Restored

Well, so much for the dearth of speed horses, it seems as though Big Brown has restored some balance!

I found the hardest part about handicapping the Florida Derby was trying to figure out if Big Brown would set the pace and if so, provide exactly the kind of fractions we saw today, i.e., fast.

In my notes there were a couple of horses who would benefit from a fast pace: Smooth Air, Cool Gator, BB Frank, Majestic Warrior and Tale of the Cat. Of those, I definitely thought Smooth Air and Majestic Warrior stood the most chance to make some noise. Tomcito was a total pace unknown to me so I didn’t know what to make of him.

I keyed almost all of my bets with Fierce Wind so it didn’t work out to well for me from a betting perspective, but I thought it was a thrilling yet quizzical race. In addition to being flabbergasted by Big Brown’s jaw dropping performance, I was equally flummoxed by Fierce Wind & Elysium Field’s no shows.

I was pleased with Smooth Air and thought as they came around the final turn he actually had a shot to catch Big Brown (which was extra exciting as I had a little win bet on him). Además, yo estaba muy satisfecho con el rendimiento de Tomcito (gracias Google Translate!).

I’m looking forward to watching the replay and reading all the speculation and hype that’s no doubt being produced right this very moment.

No Doubt About It

Curlin & Robby Albarado winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic (Charles Pravata)

Curlin is one hell of an impressive horse, or as Swifty just put it on the phone, “Curlin’s got skillz”.

It was easy to dismiss how effortlessly he won his last race, but not here. He ran at least 3 wide the entire race and on command produced another gear to motor past the field and win by 3-4 7 3/4 lengths… effortlessly.

I’m happy to report that Curlin is doing a stellar job of fulfilling my hopes and dreams of making an air tight case for talented horses racing beyond 3. I don’t even care if Jess Jackson is lying through his teeth about doing for it good of the sport… letting him get credit for it is a small price to pay if our stars can stick around longer because of it. But we all know where the real credit goes… thank you Fen-Phen!!

Off to a Great Start

Go Diamond Stripes, what a nice performance! I liked him to win here but didn’t put any money on him at his price. I also only lightly handicapped the card so I won’t be doing too much (serious) wagering this morning. I did throw a couple of bucks on Don Renato, but to win not to show.

Regardless of how much I play along from home, I haven’t been this excited for Saturday morning TV since Looney Tunes & Super Host (for those who lived within broadcast distance of WUAB in Cleveland in the early 70’s).

Next up, I think I’ll make a little play on My Indy using the same logic that can be found over at casa de Superfecta.

Procrastination Sidebar

Hats off to Paul Pompa Jr on his excellent horse naming sensibility (presuming he named them). He owns the following runners on tomorrow’s Gulfstream card: Classy Concern, Backseat Rhythm, Yes Master and Big Brown.

Perhaps it’s time I stop putting off reading this? Ok, back to handicapping…

A Triumphant Return?

While looking over the Gulfstream card for tomorrow, a few things jump out (besides how interesting the Florida Derby is going to be!).

While we’re all caught up in the current derby hype of Big Brown, Tomcito and the like I’d like to take you for a little trip in the (not so) way back machine… note last year’s Florida Derby:

Michael Matz trainee Chelokee was very much in vogue in the hype machine and his maneuver to get around some horses and close strongly in the Florida Derby only added fuel to the fire. Was he the next Barbaro? Would he run in the Derby? There ended up being no Triple Crown action for the talented colt but he did go on to win the Barbaro Stakes (nee Sir Barton – change it back!) on Preakness day and the Northern Dancer before sustaining an ankle injury.

Fast forward to tomorrow, site of the 2008 Florida Derby, where Chelokee will be making his 4 year old debut as the 7-5 favorite in race 6, a 75K allowance optional claimer (where no one is in for a tag). Drums of Thunder, also on the Derby Trail last year, is also in the race. I’m wondering Chelokee will pull a Circular Quay and have a triumphant return?

Other 2007 Derby Trail horses on tomorrow’s Gulfstream card include Izzie’s Halo in the 8th and Imawildandcrazyguy in the 12th, who also ran in last year’s Florida Derby.

Best of luck to all them!

Running Style Imbalance

Yours truly is back from impersonating a business traveler (and not such a hot impersonation at that). I had a couple of posts I wanted to do but was either too tired or lacking free wireless. I have to get crackin’ on my handicapping for tomorrow, but you know I like to procrastinate!

I’ve been noticing a lot discussion about this year’s crop of 3yos lack of consistent 100+ Beyers, not only here but around ye olde blogosphere as well. I haven’t had a chance to investigate all the points everyone is making too closely (consider my first paragraph the excuse) so pardon me if someone else made this point already… I think this is really a function of the imbalance of running styles (as first noted here in the second to the last paragraph).

Are there any other confirmed speed horses besides War Pass? I don’t think there are (please let me know if I’m forgetting anyone). For example, if you look at Pyro’s Beyers in his two races with War Pass, they both broke 100. He had a 100 in the Champagne and 105 in the BC Juvie. And I’m not just talking about Pyro here… I believe all of the other contenders this year, aside from War Pass are either closers or stalkers, so how can you knock them for slower Beyers if they don’t have a speed horse to chase?

New Poll, Is R2R a Legend?

What makes a horse a legend? Is breaking a long standing record enough? In my mind, she’s definitely a legend but I don’t have a very expansive sense of the history of the sport… so tell me your thoughts dear readers, is she a legend? And if not, why?

The previous poll on Ladies Day was the most voted on poll so far here at GbG with 53 votes to date. It was a squeaker between “Good god, Ladies’ Classic? Are you crazy?” with 13 votes while “Change Ladies’ Classic name back to Distaff and I’m good” was a close second with 12. “Well intentioned but needs some work!” got up for a show by a nose with 11 while “Love it as is!” came in with 9 and “Feels a bit icky & sexist…” came in with 8. All and all, a tightly bunched pack… well done!

Now a Legend

Rags to Riches, in a league of her own training at Belmont (Jason Moran)

I have to admit, when I checked the TBA RSS late in the afternoon and saw the posts about Rags to Riches retirement, a tear came to my eye. While not a surprise, it is indeed a bummer. Although, if she were my horse, and OH how I wish she was, I would do the same thing.

In my mind, she’s a legend… no question about it. Clearly being only the third filly to win the Belmont and the first in over 100 years to do so makes a compelling case right off the bat. Beating the eventual horse of the year in the thrilling stretch duel makes the case even stronger. But all of her wins were incredible… running 5 wide in the Las Virgenes, winning by at least 5 lengths in the Santa Anita Oaks and the Kentucky Oaks? Legend.

She’s one of the reasons that I count myself extremely lucky that 2007 was my first full year as a racing fan. I had the pleasure of sitting at the top of the stretch at the Belmont when she came roaring around that corner.

At the very least, I won’t have to miss her running the in Distaff in the fall if it doesn’t work out, but I’m sure she would have been running in the Gentleman’s Classic anyway!

Hat’s off to R2R, and many thanks to her connections, particularly for running her in the Belmont. A move that not all would make with a filly.

I’m sure she’s gonna be one of the those cool moms who’s kid’s are really smart AND can kick your ass, until then…

Maiden Race:

Las Virgenes:

Santa Anita Oaks:

Kentucky Oaks:

Belmont Stakes:

Prepping at Nad Al Sheba

Nad Al Sheba (Gary Thorpe)

Handicapper’s Edge has a nice rundown of the other Americans (Curlin isn’t the only American horse running!) prepping at Nad Al Sheba for the Dubai World Cup this coming weekend.

Notional is one of many horses representing the states. Which race he’ll run in is actually up in the air. His most recent race was the Daytona Handicap on the turf where he showed the first signs of life since the 2007 Derby Trail. However the Dubai Duty Free on the turf looks to be “super tough” as his second run on the turf + he hasn’t even secured a spot in it. He is booked for the Godolphin mile yet his connections are not exactly keen to run him on dirt as they already have Barcola in the mile.

“It’s tough,” said exercise rider Tony Romero, who is handling affairs for O’Neill. “This is the race that all the best turf horses in the world come and run in. The Godolphin Mile would have been perfect for him, but Mr. Reddam already has an entry in there.”

Notional is said to be training aggressively, which is a good thing if he gets in that turf race! Either way I’ll be routing for him… AND really looking forward to seeing Premium Tap/Allam in the Classic!