Dead Heat? You Bet!

That’s the prognosis for my ancient forced air heating window unit, i.e., the only heat source in my apartment. This little unforeseen event ate up almost all of my handicapping time today however, I managed to do the Sam F. Davis in between discussions about which part may or may not be the problem. That being said, here’s what I think…

Sam F. Davis

On first glance, Z Humor looks like the pick, but after watching the Delta Downs Jackpot, I’m not convinced. With Honey Honey Honey in the mix I think the pace will be comparable to the DeD Jackpot but I think this also bodes well for Smooth Air, who’s had some improving endurance works in preparation for stretching out. Were his last two wins due to perfect trips and his talent in the slop? It’s hard to tell. I understand why one would choose to dismiss him, but given the pace scenario + works, I think he has a shot.

Enter Fierce Wind and Wise Answer. The former is improving in both performance and work outs + the slight cutback should work in his favor. Can he rate? Can he ship? Will he handle the pace? He looked great in his last two out, albeit tiring a bit in the last at 1 1/8th. The latter is also coming back to a scenario that has worked for him in the past. He can rate, can he ship? He seems more likely to handle the pace than Fierce Wind.

Big Truck is a bit a of wild card to me, he had a rough trip in the Remsen and then the slop in the Hucheson. I want to see what he does this time out but I’m not willing to put any money on him. I like that his 5F work time has improved and that he’s been training for distance, but I’ll wait and see.

In the interesting long shot department I’m willing to put a little money on Dynamic Wayne. He can ship and he’s closed off a slow pace, at his price I’m willing to bet that he might improve with a hotter pace. And just so I mention everyone, Wonder Mon has sat close on slow pace and closed on a moderate pace and it bears noting that his last work is the same time as the one prior to his last win.

Bottom line, I think this race a bit more open than it seems. I’ll probably box Smooth Air, Fierce Wind and Wise Answer with a little Dynamic Wayne across the board. Good luck everyone!

Picks: Wise Answer, Fierce Wind, Smooth Air