Gettin’ lucky in Kentucky… a.k.a., the Derby infield! (blake seely)

It’s the eve of the big dance and time to get down to business. Without further adieu, here are my thoughts on the bachelors and bachelorette!

Pyro:

I love you. I’ve always loved you. Barring any traffic trouble or just plain old bad luck, I think you can get the job done, particularly with your excellent post position. But if anyone can handle traffic, it’s you.

I don’t pay any attention to those who don’t think you’re fast enough or are concerned about your Beyers, they don’t know you like I do. I just wish all those public handicappers would quite picking you so your odds would be about 8-1!

(will definitely box with Pyro, will probably place individual win bets depending on the odds and possibly box all of them as well)

Tale of Ekati:

I knew you could do it in the Wood, the pace was going to be to your liking and you had done your homework. Now, here you are, primed and ready and more than likely going to get fractions on the fast side, just like you like them. While I’m not jazzed about your post position I have faith that you can get yourself in the a good position and work your magic!

Court Vision:

I know you tried in the Wood, and did you look game. In fact it looked a bit like some more distance would have been good for you! Breezing into town and putting in some impressive works was the way to go. That in combination with your traffic practice in the rowdy Remsen and win over the surface in the Iroquois has my head turned. And let’s not forget that you prefer your fractions fast!

Eight Belles:

We all know I like the ladies, and you’re no exception! At first I was a little skeptical looking at the fractions of your races, but your two best performances were in the races with the faster splits. That in combination with your stellar work at the track and my birdie telling me that you’re looking good is enough for me to be out and proud about thinking you’ve got a shot! I only wish I had placed a Larry Jones Oaks/Derby Double wager!

Z Fortune:

I know I thought you couldn’t be a doctor, but you buckled down and have shown us that you’re serious. Believe me, people have noticed too. Paging Dr. Fortune?

Denis of Cork:

I’m not concerned about what happened in Illinois. I know you’ve been working nicely at Churchill and know this is going to be your kind of pace, even though you have definitely shown some flexibility in the pace department (if not a touch of change of pace training!). And let’s not forget, you’ve already won at Churchill.

(definitely have a shot at being on the board, will more than likely box with Pyro and a few others)

Smooth Air:

I like you. You know that distance is an issue for you and you work on it constantly, that’s a turn on! I also know you like some fast fractions… if the track is sloppy tomorrow you move right up to Like Like. Heck, at your current odds I may as well count you as Like Like!

Big Truck:

Nice works! I think the pace is going to be your style too although if the track is sloppy I have to look elsewhere. Bluegrass? What Bluegrass? Grass is green, duh!

Visionaire:

Speaking of the Bluegrass, your finish position doesn’t at all indicate how impressive your 10 wide run was. You didn’t have enough room in the Risen Star, and who knows what the hell happened in the Gotham other than you won it. If it’s a sloppy track tomorrow you and Smooth Air are my giant tri box with Pyro.

Gayego:

You looked great in Arkansas (even thought your jockey whipped the living daylights out of you in the stretch!!). The fractions look to be to your liking, but I have to say it, I’m concerned about your post position. But I still think you’re hot!

Anak Nakal:

What? You heard me right. I know that I “officially” broke up with him but he’s gotten his act together a bit. Let’s review, he improved in the Wood, has improved works, has won at Churchill and takes those annoying blinkers off. The pace should be right up his alley so at his price I’m willing to get him in the mix.

Colonel John:

Listen, I like everything I see. I really do. You can handle any kind of pace scenario, you had a nice gallop out after your impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby and your work at Churchill was duly noted. But just because Gayego’s form transferred to dirt doesn’t mean yours will. Look at Big Truck, he worked a great bullet over the surface at Keenland and where did that get him? I’ll probably box you here and there but I’m still a little a skeptical of you…

Big Brown:

Listen hot stuff, I’ll be really happy for you if you smash the field, particularly with your post position, but I can’t get behind you just yet. I’m just not ready, so don’t push me, ok?

Best of luck to everyone!!

It looks like Chelokee was just injured in the Alysheda. He dumped Ramon Dominguez in the stretch and it looked like he was hobbling after the fact. Dominguez got up but no word on Chelokee yet. Dammit.

Update: he was vanned off with a right front ankle fracture that did not break the skin. There should be more updates after the X-rays… ugh.

Churchill Downs (blake seely)

ESPN2 has the oaks under card! I had no idea, mind you, I can only wager on the Oaks online.

The weather is hideous at Churchill! I missed the Louisville Stakes, but they replayed the stretch run which featured winner Ginger Punch hopping over a puddle… impressive!

I didn’t handicap the Oaks (or much of anything yet), but I’ll be placing a little sloppy track exacta of Bsharpsonata & Little Belle.

As I’ve been looking over everyone more closely I’ve been fining myself thinking “that would be a surprise”… which begs the question, who do you think would be the BIGGEST surprise as Derby winner?

In the last poll, 20 thought it was fair to cross enter Eight Belles while 11 of you thought it was not. Of those in the “fair” camp, it was split down the middle 10/10 between “yes she can” and “no she can’t”.

Of the 11 in the “unfair” camp, 5 of you couldn’t blame them for doing it!

Next stop, race replays…

I feel crusty when I watch TV during the day, unless of course it’s the OTB channel, but I took a break from procrastinating to watch the Hennegan Brothers on Martha Stewart. I must say that there were the perfect foil for Martha!

The segment had them literally making a Derby pie with Martha, chatting about the film, the Derby in general and the importance of home made pie crust (which is what they lack in Dubai… link to segment when it’s available). If you missed it or didn’t DVR it, check for a re-run, you won’t be sorry!

Colonel John and Corey Nakatani winning the Santa Anita Derby (Charles Pravata)

No one really knows what is going to happen in any race, at any track, on any given day of the year. The old adage “That’s why they run ’em.” helps us makes sense of a race that didn’t make any sense at all.

That is the beauty and the mystery of the sport, and the equine athlete. Everyone has an idea, some stronger than others, but, no one really knows. If you could put a microphone in front of a horse and ask him or her how they felt about their chances twenty minutes before post, I could assure you the tote board would look completely different. “So, how do you think you’ll hold up in the post parade considering there will be approximately 120,000 people in the stands?” – “I could give a rats ass about the size of the crowd. My only concern is running the competition off their feet, getting my picture taken, and getting back to the barn for a nice meal and visions of life on a stallion farm.” Now, that’s one cool, confident, and cocky horse, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he went off at 1/20.

Come Derby day, I think it wise for any horse player to only look at the facts, and listen to what is in their heart. A case in point would be my 2004 Derby experience. The Friday before the race, my coworker had asked me to come by his desk and give him my thoughts on the race. When I went over there he had already left for the day, so I left him a note. Here’s what it said:

“Lion Heart leads the field with Smarty Jones stalking, Lion Heart begins to tire and Smarty Jones takes over in the stretch to win, Lion Heart finishes 2nd, and Imperialism comes running late for 3rd.”

He comes to work the next day and finds it, watches the race, and sees everything I told him come to fruition; and he’s amazed. He leaves a note on my desk congratulating me on my big win which I find on Monday morning.

Shortly after I arrive at work on Monday, he comes over to my desk and asks me how much money I won, and I tell him: “Nothing. I didn’t bet it.” He was dumbfounded.”WHAT???!!” So I begin to explain: “Here’s what happened. I went to watch the race at my friends house and everyone was talking about all these horses and who they liked and all that crap, and I got all sidetracked and didn’t play my original picks.”

Needless to say, I was SICK to my stomach watching that race unfold exactly as I had envisioned it. My spirit had aligned with that of the Horse Gods’ for the greatest race of the year, and I blew it. All those experts on TV, they were all wrong, and I was right, but I couldn’t even cash a ticket. The trifecta was more than nine hundred dollars. It still pains me.

If you are reading this, I am sure you have a similar story. Let us remind each other to look at the facts and to trust our hearts. That vision you already have in your head about how this race will unfold, trust it. You know as much about what is going to happen in this stampede as anyone. Let’s just hope that all twenty horses that go out, come back in good order, and may the best horse win.

With the work behind me, the store is launched, the site is updated and a freshly delivered pizza awaiting me, I’m going to do a little prep work tonight and spend the day handicapping tomorrow for Saturday’s Churchill card.

And you know what that mean, lots of procrastination posts!

The Hennegan Brothers will be on Martha Stewart tomorrow (Friday May 2nd) to discuss the film and help Martha make a Derby pie!

From MarthaStewart.com

Then, brothers Brad and John Hennegan join Martha to chat about their Kentucky Derby documentary, “The First Saturday in May,” and to make delicious derby pie, a classic recipe perfect for entertaining during the big race.

As you may or may not know, Martha likes the ponies… which is not say that she plays them (although, who knows, I bet she’d be a shrewd handicapper). Fellow TBA-er Fran features Martha’s farrier, which includes shots of her palatial stable.

No doubt it will be fun to see John & Brad on Martha (not literally y’all!), also keep an eye out for the Brothers Henn in ineffiable New York Post Gossip columnist Cindy Adam’s column tomorrow! J & B took Miss Adams, in her 80’s (and still faaabulous) to Aqueduct recently… should be a great read!

Get a hat while you’re at, and perhaps a shirt… don’t forget a poster!

Where? The First Saturday in May store, that’s where!

Mr. Umphrey and Divine Park in the Westchester, opening day at Belmont (~ RAYMOND)

Pardon my lack of posting today, because you know, this is the week when all bloggers are posting at least 6 posts a day… wait till Friday, I’ll be a posting machine!

Brief thoughts:

Belmont, yay!

Loving the ML odds of the Derby.

Love the parrot story, thanks SF!

Speaking of SF, look for Brooklyn Backstretch at Superfecta while SF is out of town and BB works out annoyance with blogger.

I heart Pyro.

Churchill Downs has the best sweet corn muffins.

I love my friend Joan and talking horses with her, she says “Tale of Ekati — I have this thing against Tale of the Cat offspring. I have this problem with the sire and cats in general.”

Looks like anyone wishing to play the Derby/Oaks under cards can do so at bricks-and-mortar simulcast facilities. (Phew, and thanks Jessica!).

Take a look at Big Brown’s feet for yourself.

David shares non-derby related a view from the inside.

And Franks shares some favorite Derby memories… glad to hear Pyro works for the “the system”.

Special Railbird correspondent “Blinkers Off” wins the best report from Churchill… even Ray Paulick thinks so!