(gueds)

Tonight I had an appointment with my chiropractor. It’s been at least 6 or 7 months since I’ve been in to see him. This time last year I was going weekly and every week we’d discuss Big Brown, IEAH, or something Triple Crown related. And he always started the conversation “I saw something about a horse racing hedge fund” or “what do you think of Big Brown?” or “what’s up with Big Brown’s trainer?”. Obviously horse racing was out there in front of general public.

At some point this afternoon I remembered this and wondered if what, if anything, he had been seeing about horse racing. Would he ask me who I liked for the Derby or what I make of Dunkirk or I Want Revenge? How about Mullins or Paragallo? I decided not to bring it up and see what happened, to let him be the canary in the coal mine of racing’s current mainstream awareness.

Mind you, we had a lot of catching to do re: the various knots in my neck and back, but I did bring up that I had been working on a horse racing related project, in addition to my day job (as an excuse for why I had let things get a little out of hand in the health maintenance department). He did respond with an enthusiastic “nice” but no follow-up mention of anything Derby or horse related…. not even the tragedy of the polo ponies.

The whole appointment was a little devoid of “small talk” so perhaps the fact that he didn’t bring up anything is not really a good indicator that racing’s current awareness level in the mainstream. My next appointment is the Monday after the Derby, let’s see if the canary is still singing then.

Churchill in the morning (Katford)

Have I mentioned recently how much I love Steve Davidowitz? He was the first handicapper I ever read and his commentary, found at DRF+ or Trackmaster, never disappoints. In his monthly installment at Trackmaster he breaks down the facts about the contenders and generally points out that there’s still plenty to keep an eye on before any meaningful Derby rankings happen. I have to agree with this. While I continue to be super flattered to be included in the PDI, my “rankings” are really more like a watch list than anything else. If I can even pick just one horse this year, it won’t be until very close to May 2nd, if not ON May 2nd.

And speaking of reasons why one shouldn’t make any decisions just yet, DRF’s clocker-in-chief Mike Welsch is on the ground at Churchill and filing daily somewhat lo-fi “Blair Witch”-esque (lol… good one Kevin!) video reports on the morning works. While I’d like to see a variety of interpretations, I’ll take what I can get. Kennedy has a nice wish list of what he’d like to see out of the contenders that you might want to keep in mind as you check-in with the Blair Witch reports.

In a rare diversion away from the Derby for a moment, Welsch mentions Rachel Alexandra’s gallop as if a space ship landed and out walked the perfect embodiment of horse prepping for a big a race. Ok, maybe I’m a little bitter because my dreamy beloved is not the 3yo filly of the moment (I actually think giving her some time off is the right thing to do!) or perhaps it’s that a filly has to be a super freak to get any media play at this time of the year.

Hello, how are the other fillies prepping? There are other fillies in the race, aren’t there? I gave Churchill’s official tweeter a little razzing today (although I think it’s just a RSS feed) about this daily report that mentions all the fillies that galloped but only gives details on Rachel Alexandra, it’s a paltry trickle of information compared to what’s out there for the boys. How about a little detail about ALL of the fillies, not just the favorite? Grrrrr.

In other news GbG was recently honored by Case the Race as #9 of of the top 10 independent blogs for the Derby! This is somewhat shocking news because I’ve barely mentioned the Derby, although they did make that caveat… however, I don’t equate frequency with rigor, just frequency. If anyone did manage to make it all the way down to #9 in search of some Derby content, I can recommend the following:

Railbird, for kick ass historical data. LATG for continued and appropriate snarking at the Times (I totally agree), That’s Amore, who’s managed to finally catch a bit of the Derby fever and the already mentioned Kennedy who continually adds rigor to frequency when it comes to the Derby! All of this and more should help you make sense of what do with those Kentucky Derby odds… have fun!

Papi Chullo in his return at the Big A in November (Ernie Munick)

Google has been indicating to me that people want to know what happened to GbG fav Papi Chullo. I even got an email from a concerned fan over the weekend wondering if I knew anything about what happened to him. Rest assured Papi fans, he seems to be doing well.

Some of you may remember that Papi Chullo made a return in the fall at the Big A in a starter handicap. It was all downhill from there from there as he ended up dropping through the claiming ranks ultimately to be sold to stud. Until now the details were a bit murky but as it turns out Papi landed in Jamaica in Mammee Ridge Farms.

Prior to his retirement there was a valiant effort at Ernie Munick’s Thoroughbred Racing in New York (TRNY) group at Facebook to raise the money to claim him. Ernie posted a shot of Papi and people started chiming in and spontaneously offering to kick in some money to claim him. We figured if every member was willing to donate $32 we could raise the money.

We were well on our way to having the funds raised and member Maggi Moss stepped up and offered to contact the current owner and try to buy him. She didn’t haven’t any luck with the owners but they did agree to sell him to stud, although it was never announced where. His profile on Pedigree Query was only recently updated with the farm location, so the mystery is now over!

As fellow Papi fan Jessica commented to me in an email:

Papi’s in Jamaica? What a life he’s had … Derby contender, claimer, Caribbean stud. Think they’re welcoming visitors?

If you’re planning a Jamaica trip any time in the near future you may want to contact to his new home to arrange for visit!

Here’s a shot of him chillaxin at his new job.

No doubt they’ll be little Papi’s running around here in a few years! Hopefully he’s doing well.

Whether you geek out or not, here’s hoping you cash a ticket or two (KumamotoMark)

It’s that time of year… time to geek out! There are a million angles and data points to obsess over and consider when selecting your Derby date, and the fun is just beginning!

Over at DRF Crist puts together a couple of interesting Google docs comparing last year’s crop to this years in terms of number of repeat wins and BSFs. Kennedy has been looking at speed and home court advantage. DRF has compiled a fantastic resource for all things Derby Prep (thanks Kevin!), and these are just a few instances of stuff to geek out on!

No time to obsess over data or compile that giant spreadsheet? I think I can help.

I made a smart ass tweet about my inner 12yo wanting Parade Clown to win the Derby, which elicited this reply from Miss Railbird.

The inner 12YO trifecta: Parade Clown, Desert Party, Chocolate Candy. All that’s needed is a hot dog to make day complete.

Naturally, this took me down the rabbit hole of silly name combos:

Spiteful Diva Exacta Box:

Big Drama / I Want Revenge

(ok, Big Drama is pointed to the Preakness, you may have to hold that one for a few weeks)

Military Heritage Exacta Box:

Musket Man / General Quarters

Booty Call Exacta Box (NSFW):

Mr. Hot Stuff / Giant Oak

Air Force One Exacta Box:

Flying Private / General Quarters

Too Hot to Handle Exacta Box:

Friesan Fire / Mr. Hotstuff

Daddy was a Landscaper Exacta Box:

Papa Clem / Giant Oak

Neighborhoodies Exacta Box:

Quality Road / West Side Bernie

WWII Exacta Box:

General Quarters / Dunkirk

Oompa-Loompa Exacta Box:

Win Willy / Chocolate Candy

Royal Bondage Exacta Box:

Regal Ransom / Hold Me Back

Vegas Frat Boy Exacta Box:

Desert Party / General Quarters

Around the Way Degenerates Exacta Box:

Papa Clem / West Side Bernie

No doubt there are plenty of other possibilities, especially as the field of 2009 Kentucky Derby contenders comes into focus!

Yee Haw, it’s a pool party y’all! (Jacob…K)

Today’s third installment of the HANA Pool Party takes place in the 3rd at Mountaineer in the exacta pool. As usual there are free PPs and other items over HANA and this week local Mountaineer handicapper Mark Patterson offers his take.

I love the exacta, not only is it my favorite wager, it’s also my most successful wager (pretty sure I just jinxed myself!). I’ve been home with a nasty cold the past few days but I managed to look over the race yesterday.

The race is pretty evenly matched and while the favorite, Enter the Lion, did stand out a bit, most notably for winning on the cut back, I’m more than likely going to throw him out. Looking back over the charts for the last days uncovered that front runners and stalkers have done overwhelmingly better than off the pace types. The two races where Enter the Lion has won have been won from the off the pace and while he ran his last two on the pace (as if they were sprints) my guess is that he’ll be back off the pace when in sprinting company.

Currently I’m interested in 5, 6, 7 & 8 and am going to wait until I get to eyeball them in the parade to figure out how I’m going to play it. I may just box them all up if they all look decent and the price is right. Legacy Hunter (#5) has done well at the distance and is cutting back, an angle that’s been fairly successful for his trainer, who’s overall stats aren’t bad. The forecast is also calling for rain tonight and this one has won in the slop, if it comes that.

I’m not sure why Take Aim (#6) isn’t the favorite as he’s the only one coming off a win. Kris’s Honor (#7) has also won at the distance and racked up a string of 5 place & shows usually within a length or so of the winner at the end of last year and Hey Reemer is returning to the dirt and reunited with his winning jockey, one of my favorite angles! All of these horses are on the pace runners so they fit the apparent bias going on at Mountaineer.

I’m happy this week’s pool party takes place at night, so all of us working stiffs that can’t watch from work have a chance to watch/wager in real time (even though I’m home sick today and could have watched any race). As always, good luck & have fun!

Update: the one front runner I tossed, Ameliaslandmissle (#9), won at 14-1 and Kris’s Honor (#7) at 3-1 placed. The $2 exacta, or perfecta as they call it at Mountaineer, payed $136. At least my assessment of the front runner bias was right on… see you next week!

I Want Revenge’s seemingly disastrous start in the Wood (Sarah K. Andrew)

With just under 3 weeks left and most of the major preps out of the way, it seems like one should have their Derby horse picked out by now. However, I haven’t really seen a lot, if any, of people bangin’ the Derby drum for one horse or another.

I think this sentiment shared by Kevin of Colin’s Ghost over at the horse player teen party chat line (Twitter) sums it up:

Really looking forward to this years Derby. No clear favorite – should be a good one.

As for my Derby pick, I agree with o_crunk when he says the winner is likely to come from Friesan Fire, Quality Road or I Want Revenge. Three colts I like a lot, have rated 1-2-3 over at PDI and just like last week, I’m not willing to pick any of them as “the one” just yet.

After this weekend though I think Papa Clem looks he might have a shot too after showing off a new trick (sitting further off the pace) and definitely stepping up his game. While I loved General Quarters in the Blue Grass, I think he might do his best running over the fake stuff, although he’s no slouch on the dirt and if he looks anything like he did in the parade for the Bluegrass, look out!

And then there’s Dunkirk and PoTN… I’m with Kevin on this one too when he hopes they take a ton of money!

But who what do you think, do you have your Derby date picked out yet?

This week’s rendition of the HANA Pool Party was fun even though 30-1 shot Behave took me out in the first leg coming out of nowhere to win over one my picks, Celebration Dance, by a neck!

The next leg saw Dovita sit nicely off the pace to beat Barefoot Babe (who I threw out) while one of my picks Doctor Carina had a horrible trip (while being full of run, insult to injury) but still managed to get up for 3rd. Over at the horseplayers teen party chat line (twitter), Eddie D pointed out that Dovita was a “slam dunk” according to ThoroGraph (but that ThoroGraph would not have helped with Behave).

The last leg unfolded roughly like I imagined except that one of my picks, So Very Irish, was scratched. Williamsburg, sat a little further back than I imagined but See I A got softened up by This is my Game (who I overlooked) and Williamsburg made a move and poured on it on to win by 5 1/4 and paying $18, nice!

The $2 Pick 3 payed $14,671.40 and a few folks had it! I kept imagining a local player cashing an unexpectedly fat payout, which I think is kind of nice too. See you around the pool next week!

(JSDesign)

Just a reminder that HANA’s second pool party, Target Tampa, is tomorrow. It’s a Pick 3 starting with the 6th race.

CanGamble offers a nice overview of various Pick 3 strategies if multi-race exotics aren’t your thing.

I didn’t spend a ton of time on this and I really like to see claimers in the parade, but here it goes:

$1 2,4,7,10 / 2,4,11 / 4,5 = total $24

I thought the first leg was the toughest and went with several of the chalky picks but threw in Zaam Time (#10 at 30-1) based solely on her ability to rate and win as the rest of field looks to be on the pace types.

I capped the next leg, a turf race, assuming it will be on the turf but liked one of the AEs who’s only win was on dirt with improving turf form (#11). Doctor Carina (#2) is dropping in class and coming in off a freshening with some endurance works. She’s a bit chalky so I’m also going to include Angel in our Jam (#4) as her last win was at the distance on the turf at Tampa + her trainer has a couple of nice stats, 11% first time with team & 50% 61-180 days. 50%! That fact that she’s 20-1 made her more attractive than #3 Barefoot Babe who does seem more reliable at the distance but is 3-1. I’m wondering if Barefoot Babe doesn’t prefer softer turf, her only win was on turf listed as Good and she just hasn’t been able to get up in her last few. Nick’s Girl (#11) looks to be knocking on the door to me. Last out was 6w and just missed by neck, a race that Barefoot Babe ran 5th in.

I love the last leg, particularly because my two picks have decent odds. Williamsburg (#4) looks like a sprinter and this is a 1 mile 40 but his last 2 works have been 5f and his trainer’s sprint/route is 21% (along assorted other nice percentages). They’re also jumping him up in class so I’m guessing his connections feel pretty confident, works for me at 5-1! So Very Irish on the other hand is proven at the distance and can either set the pace or rate. It looks like See I A will set the pace but maybe with a little pressure from Williamsburg he might flame out like his last race. That sets up well for both of my picks. Of course, it could set up REALLY well for African Skies, the 5-2 favorite who’s dropping in class and likes to close, but where’s the fun in that? It is a pool party after all!

As I settled in to forget the break up with my dreamy beloved, I popped in a DVD for Bigger Stronger Faster, a film I noticed last year and had been meaning to get around to (more on that in a subsequent post). I’m not entirely sure when it happened but now one has to sit through a bazillion trailers to get to the feature.

I was puttering around while the never ending stream of trailers just kept on playing. About 5 trailers in, one opens with a shot of Santa Anita. Then a voice over says “when was the last time you went to the track?” as the opening shots transitions to a shot of Matthew Broderick watching the race and then another of him wrapping the Form on the rail in disgust.

What? I’m kind of out of when it comes to current movies but not THAT out of it that I missed one with a racing sub-plot!

Apparently this was a direct to cable/DVD situation as I couldn’t uncover much about it. Here’s the synopsis from the official site:

From director Peter Tolan, creator of the hit television series Rescue Me, comes Finding Amanda, a hilarious and heartbreaking autobiographical comedy about the compulsions we can’t shake, and the unlikely lengths we’ll go to while trying.

Taylor Mendon (Matthew Broderick) is a television writer and producer working on a low-rated, little-respected half-hour sitcom. Once destined for bigger and better things, Taylor’s compulsive gambling, recreational drug use and drinking all conspired to throw his career off the rails. After kicking the alcohol and drugs, he only has one more hurdle…the horses.

His beautiful twenty – year old niece Amanda (Brittany Snow) has her own habit to kick. Living in Las Vegas, working as a “dancer,” her family has just discovered she is actually a prostitute, and they suspect hooking for drug money.

On their way home from an emergency family meeting, Taylor’s wife Lorraine (Maura Tierney) finds recent racing stubs in Taylor’s glove compartment. After years of standing by him, she leaves.

Taylor comes up with a plan: he’ll win back his wife by doing the right thing. He’ll go to Las Vegas, find Amanda, and deliver her to a rehabilitation center in Malibu. While he’s at it, he might even catch up with some old friends (like slimy casino host Steve Coogan). But besides that, it’s strictly the business at hand—while he’s there, he vows, he won’t gamble a single cent, but things don’t turn out quite as he’d planned.

I’m sure they don’t!

Most of the user reviews at IMDB were favorable, but had spoilers. Looks charming enough to me, in a Ferris Buehler gone astray kind of way. It’s now next in my Netflix queue… who knew?

Giant Moon winning the Excelsior, my day only got worse from here (Sarah K. Andrew)

My day started down hill rather quickly as Giant Moon took me out of the Pick 4. It got worse as my dreamy beloved threw a clunker in the Ashland. I only had $2 across the board on Boleyn at 62-1 but I was profoundly bummed to see Stardom Bound turn in such a lackluster performance. Why does Keeneland kill the things I love? (Think Pyro, my last year’s dreamy beloved… who’s reportedly galloping at Keeneland these days, go figure.)

Also a bummer that my pick of the day, Kodiak Kowboy, got hammered down to 8-5, so I took a wagering pass. This was just one several bad wagering decisions made in the flurry of back to back races on different channels with no chance to watch the parade, or in the case of Hawthorne, only showing Musket Man in the parade. Seriously, what’s the point of that? At least I got to see the races! Then again, perhaps not wagering on them would have been a good thing. Comparing this year’s Wood to last year’s, perhaps I’m more like my dreamy beloved than I want to let on!

On the bright side, the Derby is shaping up to have one fine field! I Want Revenge, who’s now on Twitter along with Joe Talamo, moves up to my “like like” list. Freisan Fire, Quality Road and I Want Revenge will be top 3 over at PDI but I’m not sure how I’ll rank them at this point as I’m not favoring one over the other. Swifty is sticking with Freisan Fire because of Larry Jones. I can make a case for each of them and find at least one knock for each of them. And it’s not like the Derby is tomorrow so things can change. At this point my top three won’t really imply that I like any of them more than the others.

Imperial Council, also on now on Twitter, and my dreamy beloved (I’ll still always love you!) will be moving on to the Broken Up With list. I’m bad at break-ups so I’m trying to stay upbeat and looking for Rachel Alexandra and Just Jenda to turn in nice performances today. I need to rebound with someone hot! And there’s always this week’s Pool Party / Buycott to cheer myself up with… who doesn’t love a Pick 3 Pool Party at Tampa Bay Downs?

Update: run, don’t walk over Ernie Munick’s to watch his stellar video recap of Wood Day at the Big A. It’s right up there with I Want Revenge’s fleet of foot.