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A DVD of the incredible documentary film The First Saturday in May, that is! And now you have a chance to win one…

The First Saturday in May Film DVD Giveaway Contest!

Have a RTTR stable? Perfect! Then join the TFSIM league for a chance to win a DVD of TFSIM. But hurry up because the prep season is already under way …

The top 10 winners will each get a DVD of the TFSIM when it is released this May.

The Fine Print: Enter as many stables as you like but each individual can only win one prize.

Point your browser to http://www.roadtotheroses.com/

League Number: 1632808932

Activation Code: 865779870

Also, check out the updated Hennegan Brothers blog and grab their new widget to help promote film!

I’ll be adding it here within the week as I have to make room for it, but while I’m at it I’m going to add a Derby Madness section as well.

Softer Landings?

Surf Cat, far left, wins the San Carlos. Circular Quay, far right, doesn’t. (Charles Pravata)

It’s curious to me that many of the 4yos returning from pre-Derby injuries last year are coming back in kind of tough spots. If it were up to me, I’d ease them in with softer landings.

Circular Quay, pictured above did nothing in the San Carlos, but should be expected to? Great Hunter is finally starting to show signs of life after 3 starts. He debuted in the Malibu and came in 11th, just ahead of another returning colt, Cobalt Blue.

I can’t remember what spot Ravel debuted in, but he certainly hasn’t come out swinging and I don’t believe Belgravia has done much either (please feel free to leave a comment if you remember the details of their debuts, Google couldn’t really help me).

Notional is set to debut in a handicap in about an hour, I’m hoping he’ll do as well as Doug O’Neill thinks he can. Dominican has also put in a couple of works in the past month but doesn’t seem to be working regularly just yet.

Is it just me or does it seem like there are some unrealistic expectations here? Most of these horses only have only raced a handful of times, it’s not like they have a TON of experience under their belt. It would be nice to see them set up to excel, not fail.

Dead Heat? You Bet!

That’s the prognosis for my ancient forced air heating window unit, i.e., the only heat source in my apartment. This little unforeseen event ate up almost all of my handicapping time today however, I managed to do the Sam F. Davis in between discussions about which part may or may not be the problem. That being said, here’s what I think…

Sam F. Davis

On first glance, Z Humor looks like the pick, but after watching the Delta Downs Jackpot, I’m not convinced. With Honey Honey Honey in the mix I think the pace will be comparable to the DeD Jackpot but I think this also bodes well for Smooth Air, who’s had some improving endurance works in preparation for stretching out. Were his last two wins due to perfect trips and his talent in the slop? It’s hard to tell. I understand why one would choose to dismiss him, but given the pace scenario + works, I think he has a shot.

Enter Fierce Wind and Wise Answer. The former is improving in both performance and work outs + the slight cutback should work in his favor. Can he rate? Can he ship? Will he handle the pace? He looked great in his last two out, albeit tiring a bit in the last at 1 1/8th. The latter is also coming back to a scenario that has worked for him in the past. He can rate, can he ship? He seems more likely to handle the pace than Fierce Wind.

Big Truck is a bit a of wild card to me, he had a rough trip in the Remsen and then the slop in the Hucheson. I want to see what he does this time out but I’m not willing to put any money on him. I like that his 5F work time has improved and that he’s been training for distance, but I’ll wait and see.

In the interesting long shot department I’m willing to put a little money on Dynamic Wayne. He can ship and he’s closed off a slow pace, at his price I’m willing to bet that he might improve with a hotter pace. And just so I mention everyone, Wonder Mon has sat close on slow pace and closed on a moderate pace and it bears noting that his last work is the same time as the one prior to his last win.

Bottom line, I think this race a bit more open than it seems. I’ll probably box Smooth Air, Fierce Wind and Wise Answer with a little Dynamic Wayne across the board. Good luck everyone!

Picks: Wise Answer, Fierce Wind, Smooth Air

The “Prove it to Me” Factor

Curlin, “proving it to me” again, in the Jockey Gold Cup (Sarah K. Andrew)

Swifty’s comment on my bandwagon post brought up another, somewhat related topic.

Oh how quickly they forget… I can’t believe that I so conveniently blanked out all of the Derby hype around Curlin last year, albeit, not quite this early.

It was everywhere, and my natural aversion to hype was fully intact as well…

04/16/2007:

The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?

05/06/2007:

So, as I suspected, Curlin wasn’t quite ready to take on the big boys, but clearly he’s a very good horse.

It dawned on me last night that Curlin was such a media darling because Americans are completely invested in the idea of the easy payoff.

But then the tide started to change…

05/19/2007 – 1:

I also think the Derby was probably good for Curlin. I’m looking for him to sit closer to the pace and have a better shot this time.

05/19/2007 – 2:

Curlin may have won by a nose but he kicked Street Sense’s ass in my opinion. He came 3 wide to Street Sense’s inside trip and the really poured it on at the end. Fucking Fantastic! He galloped out nicely too. The one thing I did get right was that the Derby was good for him! He really has the killer instinct.

And then, he had proved it to me…

05/21/2007:

I was re-reading a few of my posts because I was thinking about things I wanted to see about a few of the horses before I became a believer.

From my Derby Futures Wagers post:

“The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?”

Answered: Yes!

Not only is the this story of how one woman overcame her abhorrence of hype, it illustrates something I’m sure every horseplayer does to some extent. We all have our “yeah, but how will they handle X” or “but they had the perfect trip”.

As a matter of fact, to me Street Sense never lived up to “the hype” because he never “proved it to me” about having to go around horses. How would he have faired in this year’s Risen Star as a closer?

We all do it, and we all have our own criteria. For example in the aforementioned TBA Facebook discussion of Pyro, Teresa at Brooklyn Backstretch still has Pyro on her “Prove it to me” list because the pace was so slow (could he do it if he had had to run faster?) but to me it was more impressive because the pace was slow. To each their own “Prove it to me”… and that’s what makes discussing the races so damn fun!

New Poll, The Monkey (Natch)

Many thanks to all who voted in the Empire Maker filly poll… and especially to the lone voter for Miss Red Delicious! If I could have, I would have voted for them all. Country Star was our winner with 17 votes to Mushka’s 12 (one of which was mine… I heart Mushka).

But alas, it’s time to move on… to a topic I’m sure we’ll all miss discussing, at least for a couple of years until he has offspring! I personally think it’s a shame that he wasn’t able to just come into his own, even if that would have turned out to be “just ok in allowance company”.

As I’ve said before (STILL haven’t gotten all my old posts over here), there’s absolutely no way they could have thought they would recoup that investment… I guess theirs is bigger!

To Make it Easier to Find Later…

Now that I have the whole “bandwagon” clarification out of the way, time to get back on it for one hot second.

Since there’s plenty of, dare I say, hype about Pyro, I wanted to compile it to make it easier to find later.

Race Replay (check):

DRF Recap (check)

Papa Beyer sagely reminds us not to discount War Pass just yet (check) [DRF+]

Papa Beyer discusses Pyro’s “jaw-dropping” closing kick (check) [DRF+]

Crist explains figs and pace (check) [Cristblog]

Added 02/12:

Randy Moss discusses the final quarter mile [NTRA]

Haskin discusses how Fairgrounds plays into the mix [Bloodhorse]

Added 02/14:

Plonk gives some context [ESPN]

Downey on the Beast of the Bayou [Downey Profile]

Watchmaker on Derby Fever [DRF]

Something else interesting to me this weekend, was that Indian Blessing rated really nicely in the Silverbulletday. This was the first time she didn’t just smoke the field from almost the get go. Watch for yourself…

I Know It’s Early, but I’m Not Ashamed!

A spate of posts, comments and Facebook wall post conversations about Pyro, “bandwagons” and the time of year have brought up some interesting things (for me at least).

It started this morning with some comments I received on my Pyro = Real Deal post. The post itself was rather vague and had only 2 sentences:

I think a bandwagon just pulled up in front of my apartment… holy crap I can’t wait to watch that replay again. That was one serious win!

When online pal and frequent reader Dave shared a “it’s kind of early sentiment” I was a little surprised… had I just broadcasted that Pyro would win the Derby? Does bandwagon have more a “blind follower” connotation that I realized?

The same sort of thing happened at the TBA Facebook Group when I posted a similar vague and enthusiastic pro-Pyro thing. It sort of felt that unless I had a wait a see approach that it meant that I unequivocally thought that Pyro would the Derby. Odd.

Here’s part of my reply there:

I think Pyro dispelled the myth that he’s a bridesmaid… he clearly wants to win, which is important. And, he can get around horses and excel on queue. All I can say for certain is that I think he’s got a legit a shot and I couldn’t say that before this weekend.

[snip]

At any rate, at least I feel more engaged than I did prior to the weekend, I’m still waiting to see Court Vision, War Pass and Majestic Warrior… the others that I’m expecting to be real contenders and am excited to see who else emerges. (Editors note: I forgot to list National Pride, I’m also waiting to see him, if he’s even in the States).

There are many things I love about horse racing. I love handicapping, the analytical challenge and life long learning opportunity was what drew me in. I love the races themselves, they’re thrilling and a great reminder that it’s not over till it’s over. But probably the biggest surprise to me is that I love being a fan, something I’ve never been, or at least let myself be… ever.

I deplore hype, at the faintest whiff of hype I will find as many reasons as possible to dismiss the hyped object. It’s different with the ponies, for whatever reason I let myself get jazzed about a horse or horses. It’s fun for me, almost like walking on the wild side or seeing how the other half lives. “So this how people who get excited about things are… fascinating” (and really pretty fun!).

Don’t get me wrong, I’m still analytical… and while I am jazzed I also know it’s early. I guess that’s the other thing, just because I’m jazzed about Pyro doesn’t mean I won’t be jazzed about others along the way (while still being jazzed about him).

Last year I liked Hard Spun & No Biz going into the Derby and was definitely a fan of both throughout the year. But I also came around to Curlin without feeling any less of a fan of the other two. I guess I’m the multiple bandwagon type, or maybe I’m just willing to at least try to be a fan and horseplayer… not necessarily the most natural fit.

Pyro = Real Deal

I think a bandwagon just pulled up in front of my apartment… holy crap I can’t wait to watch that replay again. That was one serious win!